Handicapping The Golden Globe Awards: Film Predictions
With the 67th Golden Globe Awards just over 24 hours away, we thought we’d take a shot and handicapping the show’s film awards. Every year there’s a slew of projected locks that end up being locks, but also quite a few upsets. This year should be no different.
Best Picture – Drama
Adam’s Pick: I thought Precious was the most important film I saw all year, and maybe the best, but I’m going to go with Avatar here. It’s got that Titanic momentum going on.
Mike’s Pick: Avatar. The Hurt Locker might be considered the front-runner here, but I think we are looking at a repeat of 1998 (awards for films released in ’97) where James Cameron’s film beats out the critical favorite at the Globes (it was Titanic over LA Confidential 12 years ago).
Scott’s Pick: It will be difficult to quell Avatar’s momentum, but I’m going with the very intense and incredibly powerful The Hurt Locker.
The Favorite: Avatar
Contender: The Hurt Locker
Darkhorse: Up in the Air
Best Picture – Comedy/Musical
Adam’s Pick: The Hangover was great, but it was also overrated. This one should go to the deeper, superior, hell, maybe even funnier film — (500) Days of Summer. Inglorious Basterds should have been in this category.
Mike’s Pick: (500) Days of Summer. Here’s to hoping the HFPA has some taste and ignores It’s Complicated and Nine, two mediocre films that unfortunately have a real shot.
Scott’s Pick: I hope (500) Days of Summer takes it. Joseph Gordon-Levitt and Zooey Deschanel absolutely killed in that flick.
The Favorite: The Hangover
Contender: (500) Days of Summer.
Darkhorse: Julie & Julia
Best Actor – Drama
Adam’s Pick: George Clooney. I think this was the performance of the modern Cary Grant’s career. Bridges also deserves high praise for Crazy Heart, though.
Mike’s Pick: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart. While I’d love to see Colin Firth win this one, the buzz seems to surround past nominee Jeff Bridges.
Scott’s Pick: I’m leaning toward the sentimental favorite, Jeff Bridges. Dude has been solid for three decades. He’s well-deserving.
The Favorite: George Clooney
Contender: Jeff Bridges
Thanks for the Laugh: Tobey Maguire
Best Actress – Drama
Adam’s Pick: Giving this award to Sandra Bullock would be like giving Uwe Boll the Cecil B. DeMille Award instead of Scorsese. And if they screw it up there’s no going back and taking a Mulligan (had to go there).
Mike’s Pick: Carey Mulligan, An Education. I would be very surprised to see this one go any other way. It will be more of a battle at the Oscars when Mulligan will (presumably) be up against Meryl Streep.
Scott’s Pick: Please not Sandra Bullock! Even though Bullock will likely take it, I’m going with an upset: Carey Mulligan. She impressed in the underrated An Education.
The Favorite: Sandra Bullock (seriously)
Contender: Carey Mulligan
Darkhorse: Gabourey Sidibe (Precious)
Best Actor – Comedy/Musical
Adam’s Pick: I have a feeling that they’ll “Winslet” Joseph Gordon-Levitt and give this one to Matt Damon, who’s paid his dues.
Mike’s Pick: Matt Damon, The Informant. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this award go to any of the five nominees, but since Damon is nominated twice this year, and will lose in the Supporting Actor category, I think they’ll give him this one.
Scott’s Pick: Day-Lewis and Downey Jr. are heavy hitters. Either one is worthy, but Gordon-Levitt continues to amaze me with his depth of range.
The Favorite: Matt Damon
Contender: Joseph Gordon-Levitt
Darkhorse: Robert Downey Jr.
Best Actress – Comedy/Musical
Adam’s Pick: Just say no to Bullock. Streep. Streep. Streep.
Mike’s Pick: Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia. Streep’s only real competition in this category is herself, which could set up a win for fellow double-nominee Sandra Bullock, but I’d be shocked.
Scott’s Pick: One word: Streep. For Julie & Julia.
The Favorite: Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia)
Contender: Meryl Streep (It’s Complicated)
Darkhorse: None
Best Supporting Actor:
Adam’s Pick: “That’s a bingo!” Inglourious Basterds’ breakout star Cristoph Waltz better have his acceptance speech ready.
Mike’s Pick: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds. This is a lock. The only potential for an upset would be Woody Harrelson, but that’s such a long shot it’s really not even worth considering.
Scott’s Pick: If Christoph Waltz doesn’t clean house during awards season, it’s an effing travesty. He stole Inglourious Basterds.
The Favorite: Cristoph Waltz
Contender: Cristoph Waltz
Darkhorse: None
Best Supporting Actress
Adam’s Pick: Mo’Nique. Her performance and Precious in general shook me down to my core. The ex-Soul Plane actress was, surprisingly enough, the one who put this incredible little drama way over the top.
Mike’s Pick: Mo’Nique, Precious. Although I absolutely adored Anna Kendrick in Up in the Air, this was the role of a lifetime for Mo’Nique and she deserves the award.
Scott’s Pick: I dig Anna Kendrick, but Mo’Nique will take home the Globe.
The Favorite: Mo’Nique
Contender: Mo’Nique
Darkhorse: None
Best Animated Film
Adam’s Pick: I liked Up. I really did. But it wasn’t anywhere near as good as Pixar’s last effort, Wall-E, Coraline or Wes Anderon’s first animated film, The Fantastic Mr. Fox, which deserves to win.
Mike’s Pick: Up. Up is the obvious choice here, but don’t discount Wes Anderson’s The Fantastic Mr. Fox’s ability to be the big upset this year.
Scott’s Pick: Up. In a landslide.
The Favorite: Up
Contender: The Fantastic Mr. Fox
Darkhorse: Coraline
Best Director
Adam’s Pick: Here’s the spot to honor Jason Reitman, one of film’s best young directors, and Up in the Air. This gets the nod over best screenplay because the real-life footage that gave the film a huge boost was a directorial choice.
Mike’s Pick: James Cameron, Avatar. Again, I could be very wrong here, but I think Cameron will upset, setting up himself and his film as the new frontrunners for the Academy Awards.
Scott’s Pick: I’m a Hurt Locker guy, so I say Bigelow. Easily her best work to date. Apologies to Point Break.
The Favorite: Kathryn Bigelow
Contender: Jason Reitman, James Cameron
Darkhorse: Quentin Tarantino
Best Foreign Film
Adam’s Pick: I am a Penelope Cruz apologist, so of course I am rolling with Broken Embraces. But The White Ribbon will probably win.
Mike’s Pick: The White Ribbon. I thought Broken Embraces was fantastic, but The White Ribbon is getting the most buzz from those who have seen it. Hopefully a win here will get the film a wider release stateside.
Scott’s Pick: The only one I’ve seen is Broken Embraces. Guess I’ll have to pick that one.
The Favorite: The White Ribbon
Contender: Broken Embraces
Darkhorse: The Maid
Best Screenplay
Adam’s Pick: Inglorious Basterds is a dialogue clnic that should be taught as a subject at film schools. It’s got this wrapped up. The again, I’ve never been fired (Up in the Air). Wonder if many of the voters have?
Mike’s Pick: Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds. Tarantino’s script for Basterds is not only the best writing of the year, it’s some of the best ever. Though, this might be the HFPA’s best shot at giving some gold to Up in the Air, which earned the most nominations this year (6).
Scott’s Pick: Up in the Air. It’s smart, touching and relevant.
The Favorite: Inglorious Basterds, Quentin Tarantino
Contender: Up in the Air, Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, from the novel by Walter Kim
Darkhorse: The Hurt Locker, Mark Boal
(Be sure to join us at 6 PM E/5 PM C for our live chat during the 67th Annual Golden Globe Awards on Sunday night!)
