Analysis: 20th Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards

Now that the 20th Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards are over, it’s gotten much easier to prognosticate how things will go on Oscar Sunday.

The race for Best Supporting Actress is between Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle) and Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave). The actors are the largest voting branch in the Academy and they clearly spoke tonight with giving the award to Nyong’o for her breakout performance. That’s not to take anything away from Lawrence, nominated for her 3rd film in the last 4 years. Lawrence won the Golden Globe last Sunday but Nyong’o took home two awards in a period of three days, taking the Critics’ Choice Movie Award on Thursday and SAG Award last night. This is the toughest category to nail down but the last 5 to win in this category have gone on to win at the Oscars.

The race for Best Actress is…well, there isn’t one. Cate Blanchett will take home the award for Blue Jasmine. The only thing standing in her way before the Oscars are the BAFTAs on February 16th. Dame Judi Dench could be a surprise winner when those awards are given out in February but it’s unlikely that she stills Cate’s thunder. Blanchett won at the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice Movie Awards, and now SAG.

I feel bad for Chiwetel Ejiofor, who did some excellent work in 12 Years but it seems like Matthew McConaughey is the clear front-runner for his performance in Dallas Buyers Club. He’ll have to wait forever until March since he was not up for a BAFTA. Leonardo DiCaprio took the Golden Globe for Actor in a Comedy/Musical and is nominated for a BAFTA but was not nominated for the SAG Awards. Could he still McConaughey’s thunder? Possible but hard to tell right now.

Best Supporting Actor is going to Jared Leto for his work in Dallas Buyers Club. This is not even a race. He won at the Globes, SAG, and CCMA.

As for Best Picture, it’s a two-way race right now between 12 Years a Slave and American Hustle. 12 Years took home awards at both the Critics’ Choice and Golden Globes (Drama) while American Hustle took home the main prize at SAG along with winning the Golden Globe for Best Comedy/Musical.

The Producers Guild will be giving out their awards tonight. This, more or less, will determine what happens on Oscar Sunday. What was once a two-way race between 12 Years and Gravity is now 12 Years and American Hustle.

The SAG Awards in 2010 (for 2009) was the last time SAG matched all four acting categories and the best cast/picture.

Tags: 12 Years A Slave American Hustle Blue Jasmine Cate Blanchett Dallas Buyers Club Entertainment Jared Leto Jennifer Lawrence Lupita Nyong'o Matthew McConaughey Movies SAG Awards Screen Actors Guild Screen Actors Guild Awards

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